Propuesta de un modelo matemático para la optimización de los tiempos de evacuación del personal vulnerable ante emergencia volcánica en el área de influencia del volcán Tungurahua.

Abstract

The objective of this study was to develop a proposal for a mathematical model for the optimization of evacuation times of vulnerable personnel during a volcanic emergency in the area of influence of the Tungurahua volcano. A bibliometric analysis was carried out to gather information and data that allowed the development of the proposed model. A constraint programming model was used to minimize the total time to complete the evacuation tasks by efficiently allocating time and resources. An emergency plan was also developed for the evacuation of vulnerable personnel in which the roles of the different actors in the information process were identified prior to assigning resources (vehicles) to the cantons to minimize the evacuation time of vulnerable personnel. With this model, it was possible to optimize the time assigned to each of the tasks for the distribution of vulnerable personnel in different locations according to evacuation capacities and populations. The obtained model was developed using AIMMS (Advanced Integrated Multidimensional Modeling System) software, ensuring a more efficient and rapid response in evacuation situations in volcanic emergencies in the area of influence of the Tungurahua volcano in Ecuador. The model was adapted for other scenarios requiring resource distribution in emergency situations. It is important to keep in mind that the model has limitations and further qualitative evaluation tests are required to establish optimal results.