Distribución potencial de Gynoxys sp en el páramo del área protegida Ichubamba Yasepan, bajo un modelo de máxima entropía en escenarios de cambio climático

Abstract

This study determined the potential distribution of Gynoxys sp in the paramo of the protected area under a maximum entropy model approach in climate change scenarios. The individuals were georeferenced, followed by data from three variables: cover/topographic, bioclimatic, and edaphic. Finally, the 33 resulting variables and the presence of Gynoxys sp were entered into the MaxEnt software version 3.4.1. For modeling, we carried out the same procedure to model the future scenario with bioclimatic variables 2040 with data obtained from the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 CanESM5.0.3. The results show that the variables with the most significant contribution in the current model are potassium, average daily range, apparent density, and annual precipitation. However, for the year 2040, it shows that the variables with the most significant contribution are precipitation from the driest quarter, potassium, apparent density, and hydrogen potential. It is highlighted that potassium is vital for plant physiology; the medium diurnal range indicates extreme rainfall, and the evident density allows moisture retention and root growth in the projection of climate change. Precipitation in the driest quarter, potassium, apparent density, and hydrogen potential are crucial for the functioning of ecosystems and plant growth, influencing aeration, infiltration, and availability of nutrients. Concluding that there will be a decrease in the ideal ecological niche for Gynoxys sp in the study area, going from 272.4 ha to 9.6 ha, representing a reduction of 96.4%, posing challenges for the conservation of Gynoxys. However, the 14.43% increase in the moderately suitable area from 591.76 ha to 641.556 ha provides opportunities for conservation.