Distribución actual y potencial en el Ecuador de la especie Hylocereus megalanthus bajo escenarios de cambio climático

Abstract

The research was developed in the province of Morona Santiago, specifically in Palora canton, with the purpose of determining the current and potential distribution of the species Hylocereus megalanthus (K. Schum. ex Vaupel) in Ecuador under different climate change scenarios. It was based on primary and secondary sources, through the collection of sample points in the field and the bibliographic review, to determine the current distribution of the yellow pitahaya. A simple random sampling was carried out, georeferencing 25 cactus plants throughout the study area and 1 to 5 fruits were collected per plant. Then, a morphological and statistical analysis was carried out, followed by the tabulation and interpretation of results. Finally, a maximum entropy model was applied, and current and potential distribution maps were prepared, identifying the ideal sites for the future distribution of the yellow pitahaya. It was determined that Hylocereus megalanthus could extend to provinces such as Santa Elena, Manabí, Guayas and El Oro, in addition to remaining constantly in the provinces of Morona Santiago and Pastaza. It was established that the Palora "ecotype" presented a commercial weight (≥ 596.479 g). For the modeling with Max-Ent, two shared socioeconomic trajectories of climate change were worked on simultaneously, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. It was observed that the ranges of adequate distribution in the RCP 8.5 trajectory decrease compared to the RCP 4.5 scenario, which is explained by the persistence of CO2 in the RCP 8.5 trajectory. It is recommended to perform a genetic analysis of the M4_1 sample in order to determine its degree of similarity and discern whether it corresponds to a different variety, subspecies or species of Hylocereus megalanthus (K. Schum. ex Vaupel). If it is identified as a different species, carry out its corresponding botanical characterization.