Factores asociados a siniestros de tránsito en el Ecuador, mediante la comparación de modelo de regresión y análisis de correspondencias en el periodo enero 2018 – mayo 2021

Abstract

The main objective of this work was to determine the factors that are associated with traffic accidents by comparing the regression model and correspondence analysis in the period from January 2018 to May 2021. The database used in this research work was obtained from the official page of the National Transit Agency (ANT), the database had a total of 169,987 traffic accidents, with which, for purposes of optimizing data analysis processes, a simple random sample with a finite population was subsequently done. A proportional stratified sampling was performed in which the provinces of Ecuador were taken as strata. In the descriptive statistical analysis, it was obtained as a result that the provinces with the most road accidents are Pichincha, Guayas and Tungurahua, and the provinces with the least accidents on the roads were Orellana, Sucumbíos, Pastaza and Galapagos, in addition more traffic accidents occur the days that are not national or local holidays, also the side collision is the most recurrent sort of accident, the month of December presents more incidents of this type and they occur more frequently on weekends, with respect to the multiple correspondence analysis with the variables, month, day, province, type of road accident, holiday, were also done between pairs of variables, in addition to multinomial logistic regression and the area under the curve (AUC) 60.32% was obtained; Therefore, observing the value of the percentage of variability of the graph, the time model has better predictive power than the correspondence analysis. It is recommended that public or private institutions interested in the investigation and reduction of road accidents, which is considered in Ecuador one of the major causes of death, personal injury or irreparable material damage, disseminate this information and contribute to the creation of strategies that reduce these accidents to the maximum and raise awareness among drivers, pedestrians and government institutions that provide road control services.