Análisis estadístico en variables COVID-19 en el ecuador mediante la aplicación y contraste de modelos Log-lineal y SIR

Abstract

The objective of this research project was to perform a statistical analysis of COVID-I9 variables in Ecuador through the application and contrast of Log-linear and SIR models. For the development of this work, information on the daily and accumulated incidence of infections was used, taking a period of time from March 2020 to December 2021, using the information from December 2021 for the application of the aforementioned approaches, modeling the daily incidence and cumulative number of COVID-I9 in the country, estimations were calculated for measures of the infectivity of the disease, including basic reproduction number, growth rate, and doubling time. The estimations of the basic reproduction number for the SIR model were greater than 1, both in the country and in its most representative provinces, with values between 1.17 and 1.44. The growth rate located between 4% and 7% and doubling rates between 10 and 17 days approximately were also calculated. It was found that the log-linear regression model provided a better fit, and simple estimations of daily incidence in Ecuador were calculated. Finally, for a contrast of various models that study the incidence of COVID19, it is recommended not only to perform a graphical analysis but also an analytical study in case of having all the necessary parameters for comparison and thus obtain more complete research.