Distribución actual y potencial de la especie Prunus serotina en los andes centrales del Ecuador, bajo escenarios de cambio climático.

Abstract

The present investigation was carried out in the provinces of Cotopaxi, Tungurahua and Chimborazo in the localities of Latacunga, Ambato and Guano in order to determine the current and potential distribution of the species Prunus serotina subsp capulí in the central Andes of Ecuador under scenarios of climate change, for this, a literature review was carried out to determine the current distribution of the capulí, based on primary and secondary sources such as books, scientific journal articles and web pages, where information was collected about the historical context of the species. Next, a simple random sampling was carried out where 30 trees per province were georeferenced and their fruits were collected to proceed with morphometric and statistical analysis and the tabulation and interpretation of results. Finally, a maximum entropy modeling was carried out and current and potential distribution maps were developed, the ideal sites were identified where the capulí could be distributed in the future. Prunus serotina subsp capulí was located in the provinces: Pichincha, Cotopaxi, Imbabura, Tungurahua, Chimborazo, Azuay. It was determined that only the varieties from the province of Tungurahua have a commercial weight (4.21g). For modeling with Max-Ent, we worked simultaneously with 2 climate change scenarios, 4.5RCP and 8.5RCP, where it was identified that the adequate distribution ranges of the 8.5RCP trajectory increase with respect to the 4.5 scenario, this is explained under the premise that high Andean habitats have characteristics that favor the potential distribution of capulí. It is recommended to propose ecological restoration projects with Prunus serotina subsp capulí to generate economic, social and environmental benefits.