Diseño de un modelo de simulación susceptible-expuestoinfectado- recuperado de difusión del virus de peste porcina clásica en granjas de la Región Sierra, 2015-2020.

Abstract

The aim of this research was to design a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Infected-Recovered simulation model of the spread of classical swine fever virus on farms in the highland region, 2015-2020, the hypothesis of this study is to perform a Susceptible- Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological modelling for outbreaks of classical swine fever in the highland region of Ecuador, with data obtained in the field, Python software was used as materials and methods: The research had three scopes: descriptive, prospective and non-experimental. The historical databases were searched of the incidence of this disease in the provinces that conform the Highlands region, allowing information to be supplied to the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model. For the modelling, the following variables were considered: pig population, initial number of exposed pigs, initial number of infected pigs, number of pigs withdrawn, infection rate (α), transmission rate (β), recovery rate (γ); conclusions: The study concludes the SEIR model shows that the population of susceptible (healthy) pigs decreases with the passage of time to the point of reaching zero, this decrease in susceptibility takes place during the first 15 days, which shows that this is the necessary time to infect the entire population from one infected. Therefore, the population exposed increases during the 15 days that the total infection process lasts and then it decreases, in addition it is identified that throughout these 5 years of analysis of the plague, it has been increasing from 2015 to 2019, in 2020 it is identified that the number of cases of contagions decreases as a result of several factors.