Predicción de la rentabilidad del sector bancario privado y cooperativas de ahorro y crédito Postcovid en el Ecuador

Abstract

The present study was aimed to predict the profitability of the Private Banking Sector along with Savings and Credit Cooperatives Post-Covid-19 through analytical tools to obtain the necessary strategies to increase their returns in the financial sectors analyzed. To develop this study, some interviews were applied to the main actors in these sectors, which allowed to know different criteria about possible accounts and indicators that intervene in the behavior of profitability. As the main source of information, the Datalab database was used as well as the database of the Superintendencia de Economía Popular y Solidaria. Once the financial, situational and economic diagnosis of the study sectors was carried out, correlation matrices were developed to select accounts and indicators needed for the creation of the Profitability and Utility prediction model, the Crystal Ball was also used. As for banks, the best model was the Non-Seasonal Discarded Trend Method, and for Utility through the Discarded Trend Seasonal Multiplicative Method. For cooperatives, the best model was the Discarded Trend Seasonal Multiplicative Method and to forecast profitability the non-seasonal discarded trend method, which according to the level of medium square error and Theil's and Durbin-Watson's U error evaluations, these constitute the most reliable models to be applied. It was concluded that future prediction models of profitability and Utility showed positive results under confidence parameters which were established to make better decisions. It is recommended to apply these predictive models in order to obtain profitability and minimize the risks on its operations.