Diseño de un modelo matemático enfocado a la reducción del abandono estudiantil a través de un análisis multivariante, para la Universidad Regional Amazónica Ikiam.

Abstract

The present study aims to determine a mathematical equation that predicts the Student Dropout Rate at the Universidad Regional Amazónica Ikiam based on the available informat ion of the students enrolled in the years 2017, 2018, and 2019, whereby the statistical software SPSS and Microsoft Excel were used to determine whether the data were adequate. Level of study, gender, ethnicity, province of origin, and socioeconomic status were the qualitative characteristics evaluated. Before the analysis, the missing fields of the students' records were completed using the information available from the Civil Registry according to the ID card number. The qualitative variables were converted into quantitative variables using the concept of fictitious variable. Then, using Microsoft Excel software, the information was sorted and adjusted according to the province of origin. Subsequently, Principal Component Analysis was then used to determine the mestizo and indigenous parameters as the most important aspects to consider in explaining the phenomena. Linear Regression Analysis was applied to the variables mentioned to obtain an equation that predicts the Student Dropout Rate. The model that resulted from the calculation was examined for precision and correctness. In the years 2018 and 2019, the error in the calculation is 8.67% and 9.2% respectively concerning the recorded values. In the year 2017, the error is 28.08%, being substantially significant to the other years of study. In conclusion, the analysis performed meets the objective set.