Desarrollo de un modelo matemático a través de procesos estocásticos para optimizar el tráfico vehicular en la Escuela Superior Politécnica de Chimborazo proyectado para el año 2023.

Abstract

The objective was to develop a mathematical model through stochastic processes to optimize vehicular traffic in the Escuela Superior Politécnica de Chimborazo projected for the year 2023. The research began by defining and delimiting the problem of vehicular congestion that has been generated on the polytechnic campus, and that due to its rapid population growth due to the diversification of its academic programs, the problem is expected to increase. It was oriented in the construction of the model of the dynamics of vehicular traffic through Cellular Automata based on the Nagel-Schreckenberg model under the microscopic approach using the non-stationary stochastic process. In the calculations performed, 900 vehicles were considered as the number of vehicles entering the campus hourly and a length of 743 meters distance with an average speed of 30 kilometers per hour. When the braking probability varied between 0 to 0.3, the vehicles moved without stopping very often, that is, they had minimum congestion, while, when the braking probability varied between 0.4 to 0.6, the congestion began to be observed, so the braking increased and the vehicles stopped more often; finally, when the braking probability varied between 0.7 to 1, the vehicles were stopped completely and there was no displacement, that is, the speed of each vehicle was equal to zero. The simulation of the model was performed in the Wolfram Mathematics software, which allowed us to have a detailed and real vision of the congestion inside the campus. It was recommended to extend the proposed model to include other factors that influence the behavior of vehicular traffic, these factors can be the weather, and road conditions, among others.