Perfiles de riesgos mediante un método actuarial asociados a los suicidios en la provincia de Tungurahua entre los años 2017 a 2019

Abstract

The following investigation made reference to the multiple factors of suicides in the province of Tungurahua, in this way it was possible to determine which factors have the greatest influence on from 2017 to 2019. In Ecuador according to figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INEC) it is known that the number of deaths from suicides is higher than homicides; for the province of Tungurahua, through data provided by the National Directorate of Crimes against Life, Violent Deaths, Disappearances, Extortion and Kidnappings (DINASED) the year in which the obtained the highest number of cases was in 2018 with 73 people. For this reason, the need for work on the numbers, starting with an analysis of the information provided to filter from the variables of interest, followed by it, an analysis of correspondences was proceeded in order to find some type of association between variables or categories, obtaining that, canton, motivation and month contributed significantly in the associations; and also the logistic regression was carried out and it was possible to predict whether a person victim of suicide is man or woman, finding that said prediction provided 64% effectiveness so it was considered acceptable according to statistical standards. Two risk profiles were managed, the first is given by men based in the canton of Ambato regardless of the area, in the months of December, January and July, the method used was constrictive and the reasons were familiar and sentimental. The second profile is women living in the canton of Pelileo, the fact was in the months of October or March with constrictive methods given by sentimental problems. It is recommended to take the information into account not only to work with awareness campaigns rather, generate links between entities.