Evaluación económica en la productividad de trigo variedad vivar, en un escenario de cambio climático del año 2010 al 2016, en la parroquia Sevilla, cantón Alausí, provincia de Chimborazo.

Abstract

The objective of the research was to economically evaluate the productivity of wheat under a climate change scenario from 2010 to 2016 in the Seville parish, for which a productive and financial historical situational diagnosis of the area's kinds of wheat was made, besides, to collect climate data information from nearby meteorological stations to interpolate the data to the study area, the methodology used was non-experimental, using the deductive and inductive methods. The experimental design used was a comparison analysis through the method of ordinary least squares, in which the dependent variable was productivity, and the independent variables were climate change factors and economic factors. A gradual decrease in productivity of 41.87% was obtained during the study period, identifying the years with higher and lower water offers as well as demands, also revealing the effects of climate change on the temperature and precipitation variables with significant changes compared between months and years of study, a Net Present Value (NPV) per hectare of USD 771.15 was obtained at a rate of 12%, and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 23.37% and a benefit/cost ratio of USD 1.91, so it was indicated that although the statistics show favourable results, the climatic factor in the agricultural sector is the most essential variable to take into account. However, other factors such as soil wear, agronomic practices and incidence of pests and diseases should also be considered.