Desarrollo de un Modelo Econométrico para Realizar Proyecciones que Determine la Situación Socioeconómica de la Quesera en la Fundación Marco.

Abstract

"An econometrc pattem was developed and ts projections wil determine the income increase to improve the benefciary's economical conditions of the Marco Foundation projects. The agro- enterprise ""La Quesera"" which is located in the Canton of Cola, Chimborazo Province. A. population of 1873 was used this means product supplers(grocery stores, micro-markets) from the urban area in Riobamba for the descriptive analysis. A 322 survey sample was gotten by applying the Cannavos formula so it was possble to determine the amount of grocery srores. hat each parish has and they are as folows: 38% in Lizarzaburo, 21% in Maldonado, 25% in Velasco,14% in Veloz and 2% in Yaruquies. The information was collected, analyzed and processed in the SPSS software getting the folowing result: 78% of grocery stores, miero- markets can sell""La Quesera"" products. The agro enterprise base data was used for the pattern ereation taking into account the following variables: expenses, produced unit total, raw materia, raw material payment, extra raw material payment . This information has a trustwortny level of 95% and an error margin of 5%. By using the SPSS backward sofware procedure, the variables, that did not provide any kind of information to the research, were deleted.The

following pattem was gotten:

Incomes: -321.387+0.154* raw mateñal+0.327* raw material payment=0.509* produced unit

total

""The agro enterprise will have an income of $122615 by generating the quotation fr the next 2 years. tia concluded that “La Quesera"" wil have 14.85% of increase regarding is incomes. Therefore, the benefiiary's iving condition quality wil be improved. in adaiton, is recommended that the agro enterprise uses this econometrc pattem when making decisions.

because date is collected every month so a real value increase and decrease will be observed."