Desarrollo de Modelos de Series Temporales para el Análisis de las Tendencias en el Ambito Institucional: ESPOCH

Abstract

"This investigation deals with finding models of temporal series for the tendency analysis and predict the entrance of students into the Escuela Superior Politécnica de Chimborazo and intc each faculty. A descriptive study was carried uot to obtain a better management of the information and make the political administrative decisions on time. The information was obtained from the Academic Registrar-s Office and the Planning Office which have a 21 year period recorded data (1988-2008).

Thee methodologies were applied: additive model (trigonometric polynomial), simple lineal regression model using EXCEL and Holt model applying MINITAB; the prediction was carried out for four years with theree models, studying the tendency through y the autocorelation function with significance limits of 5%. After having observed the errors of each model it was determined that the best prognostic was the additive one. It was projected that the estudent entrance for the 2011 year in the Enterprise Adminitration Faculty will be 2835; in the Cattle and livestock Science Faculty, 990; in the Electronics and Informatics Faculty, 1901; in the Mechanics Faculty, 2232; in the Natural Resources Faculty,618; In Public Health Faculty 1952: in the Science Faculty, 1909, with a total of 12.437.At present (October 2007), there are 10,226 students. With this study it is posible to predict that the student population in four years will increase by 2,211 students. It is concluded that with the additive model the prognostics are significantly adjusted to the data.

The Escuela Superior Politécnica de Chimborazo must implement a management system of informatics data base for a better management of the information which will serve for opportune and pertaining decisión making."