Modelación y Pronóstico del Potencial Energético del Río Blanco Usando la Teoría del Caos y un Método Convencional

Abstract

"The objective of this investigation was to model and to predict with more precision the potential hydroelectric energy of the Río Blanco, by means of the prediction of flows in L/s based on the registrations stored in station number 2 of the Empresa Eléctrica Riobamba S.A. applying the ARIMA model and chaos theory whose results are important for the project “Energy Balance and Diagnosis of the Potential of Altemative Energy of the Canton Riobamba"" financed by the CONESUP, with the end of solving the problems of using of

hydroelectric energy.

The software SPSS version 11 for the ARIMA model and TISEAN version 2.1 for chaos theory, the presage precision was determined by an residuals or errors analysis, correlation and Tukey test. The forecasting period with significant correlation is 14 days with the chaos theory and 17 days with the ARIMA model, the Tukey test shows that significant difference don't exist between the predictions and the real data until day 11 (chart 17), thatis to say, the averages of the precision of the potential hydroelectric energy of Río Blanco found with predicted with the two methods is statistically similar to the potential found with the real data during 11 days with reliabiity at 95%, starting from the twelfth day the chaos theory is more precise than the model ARIMA, The Empresa Eléctrica Riobamba S.A should implement a computer database or a better handling of information and to start studies of hydroelectric potential

by means predict models for the most efficient use of the river."